Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
fed growth half late move occur robust second summer unlikely until
Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
alive companies economy grow healthy internet left standing talking time
The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
almost amount boost capital certainly consumer economy economy-and-economics growth half hopefully huge next policy rebound recovery second spending spring stimulus strongly
The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
anyone economy economy-and-economics four growth mean months percent recession three
The economy is doing better than anyone three or four months ago thought it could do. While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had.
definitely economy economy-and-economics growth landing nearly percent prior rate soft viewed year
The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.
capital data indication provides quite report second spending state
This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong.
believe data indicate last miracle recent recently revised talk
There has been talk recently about how, because productivity was revised down last year, it would belie the productivity miracle of the recent past. We believe today's data indicate that this is not happening.
assume begin half happen next
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.
basis believe climax continue cut fed market past risk selling
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
easily headed job loss october rate
October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.
ease late soon
I think they may ease as soon as late January.