Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.
basis believe climax continue cut fed market past risk selling
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
august determine federal good interest month raise rates tale whether
That's really going to tell the tale of whether the (U.S. Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates or not. It will probably determine whether August is a good month (for stocks) or not.
august fed initial key path rate timing until
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.
fed growth half late move occur robust second summer unlikely until
Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
attitude believe ease fed last rather remarks testimony
Greenspan's testimony was balanced. We believe today's remarks were enough to think that the Fed will take a 'wait and see' attitude rather than ease one last time.
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The economy is still going very, very strong. I think in October the Fed will take a pass, what they do after that remains to be seen.
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The complete lack of inflation puts the Fed in a bind. Recent remarks by Fed officials make it seem that they are hell-bent on tightening. But there is not much of a rationale that comes out of recent data.
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These problems have begun to improve, but they're far from resolved in terms of problems. So the Federal Reserve has got to keep moving.
economic fed likelihood market remove report rule stay
The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.