Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
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The complete lack of inflation puts the Fed in a bind. Recent remarks by Fed officials make it seem that they are hell-bent on tightening. But there is not much of a rationale that comes out of recent data.
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The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
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The Leading Economic Index is basically telling us what we already know. Despite the declines in the index, the economy is growing, although very slowly.
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The economy is doing better than anyone three or four months ago thought it could do. While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had.
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The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.
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The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
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The economy remains weak, but hints of stabilization are emerging.
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The economy is still going very, very strong. I think in October the Fed will take a pass, what they do after that remains to be seen.
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The economy is on the verge of recovery but the recession has not quite loosened its grip yet.