Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
alive companies economy grow healthy internet left standing talking time
The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place.
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The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.
further labor market
A further deterioration in the labor market is inevitable.
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The U.S. economy shows further signs of stabilizing, though a true recovery is still some months away. Consumers will determine the near-term outlook and signs are positive.
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The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
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The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
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They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
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And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
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As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
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Actually there are two pieces of news. One is that although the market consensus was only 250,000, the bond market was fearing a much, much stronger report --hence the relief rally that followed the release of the numbers.
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Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
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October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.
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I believe they are going to raise rates at least twice more after today.