Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
august determine federal good interest month raise rates tale whether
That's really going to tell the tale of whether the (U.S. Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates or not. It will probably determine whether August is a good month (for stocks) or not.
believe declining economy economy-and-economics good happening hard performing rising sign strong time
The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.
acquainted continuity good
They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
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This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong.
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There has been talk recently about how, because productivity was revised down last year, it would belie the productivity miracle of the recent past. We believe today's data indicate that this is not happening.
assume begin half happen next
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.
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We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
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As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
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October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.
ease late soon
I think they may ease as soon as late January.
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Larry Summers is a very capable guy. He's been Rubin's deputy for the last five years or so, and Rubin has been grooming him to take on the responsibilities of being the Treasury secretary.
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Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery. Every $1 increase in the price of oil drains about $5 billion from the U.S. economy, if sustained for a year.
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Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.