Britt Beemer
Britt Beemer
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Back to school is a very important season for retailers because it's one chance in the year when retailers get a shot at parents and kids at the same time. Historically, sports figures have been the big players; now it's a different breed of endorsers taking over.
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Wal-Mart has had a much stronger gift-card season than last year, so that might explain why their (December) sales figure is not as good.
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Only a month ago, I felt we could see the first negative selling season in over 20 years, but the drop in gas prices has given consumers a newfound shopping spirit that should sustain them throughout the month of December.
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Retail sales were pretty good, considering at the start of the season we were looking at $3 gasoline and were still recovering from the hurricanes. Consumers got out early and responded to early-bird specials, but there wasn't much new. There was no hot toy or hot apparel look.
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I'm worried right now that we could have the first negative Christmas selling season in two decades,
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With their low margins, they can't afford to have unprofitable stores. It could destroy the profitability of the chain.
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With nothing hot to buy in decorations this Christmas, many stores started selling two weeks earlier than ever before, beginning in mid-September. Many stores skipped Thanksgiving altogether and went from Halloween to Christmas.
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Overall, the moderate-priced stores such as J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart had good traffic levels. We think luxury sales were probably flat this past weekend because more people said they decided to go away on vacation before Christmas this year than last year. So this could have impacted spending on other high-end items.
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Retailers had a sales plan for Christmas, stayed with it and then benefited from a very strong January without giving up margins.
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Retailers are fighting lower profits than in years past. The industry's is definitely more competitive today and companies have to do what they can to not take unnecessary markdowns.
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Retailers are caught in a 'Catch-22' situation. Their costs, such as transportation costs, are going up and this is not going to change in the short term. Meanwhile, their consumers are going to be extremely deal focused.
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Our research on holiday gift returns shows that it's only three percent of Americans who are real jerks and they indulge in consumer fraud and return abuse. The rest of us have to deal with the consequences.
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I won't be surprised if a day comes very soon when the customer is charged $5 for every return. On the one hand, tougher measures frustrate the consumer. But retailers also don't want to struggle with unnecessary discounts.
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I think retailers will hold prices up to 40 percent off before Christmas and then go even deeper in January to clear inventory. No doubt, heavy discounts help sales but they hurt profits. And retailers, more than ever, know that they have to answer to Wall Street and not Main Street.