Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
consumers good gradually half health labor market news recovery seeing starting wash
Now we're starting to see that wash out, and we're seeing that the labor market really has been gradually strengthening for most of the first half of this year. And this is fundamentally good news for consumers and for the health of the recovery going forward.
added continue economy employment fuel gain higher jobs kicks labor last link market recovery slowly weakest
While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
fact falling given headline news number recovery signals volatility
Given the volatility of the report, I don't put a lot of credence in the forecasts. The headline number is the news and the fact that it went up signals that the recovery isn't falling apart.
absorb basis clear devastated economy hit hurricane katrina momentum recover
Hurricane Katrina undoubtedly devastated individuals and communities... but on a macro-economic basis it's clear that the US economy has more than enough momentum to absorb the hit and recover quickly.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.
road worst
The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
bit lighter perhaps
Perhaps Santa's sleigh was a bit lighter than we thought.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
awful dropped force people pulled though waiting work
Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
later lever monetary policy possible rates sooner
Sooner or later rates will have to come back up to at least a 'neutral' level. But for now they've got the monetary policy lever just about where they want it, and it makes sense to do as little as possible for as long as possible.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
bets committed fed guessing january point raising rates
At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.