Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
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What will frame investor decision-making in August is going to be totally Fed-driven. We've gotten the anecdotal comments from Mr. Greenspan that we can achieve a slower growth landing but we now have to see that anecdotal evidence turn into fact.
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If we get any guidance that the Fed would be guiding toward a neutral stance, that could be a (positive) impetus, ... The economy is slowing but not recessing and the Fed will be there if necessary.
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
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We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
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We seem to go from worries about the economy slowing down to appreciating that the economy remains strong and can bounce back from slower fourth-quarter GDP growth.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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They're (investors) looking for the Fed to be absolutely aggressive and see the economy as slow as can be and to be measured in terms of understanding how important the consumer is at this point. And how important the stock market is to consumer confidence.
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Anything that shows the economy is slowing will be taken very well by the market. But the Fed is still out there and I don't think we should get used to the (idea) the Fed going to stop (raising rates) in June.
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I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
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If the Fed believes there are inflationary concerns about the strength of the economy, they will act. They will continue to do what they need to do to slow the economy down. It's going to be a transition market and there's no need to be aggressive here. Use a little caution and let prices come to you.
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I think next week it will be important to see two things: solid numbers out of growth companies and seeing still a steady stream of economic numbers showing the required slowing of the economy with no inflation.
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The intermediate background look in terms of interest rates peaking and the economy slowing to a more sustainable pace without any undue harm is slowly going to play itself out. I would be very shocked if the GDP came in anywhere higher than estimates because Wall Street is already expressing its confidence that the economy is slowing down.
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(The GDP) doesn't justify the slower earnings picture later in the year. There's a little bit of saving grace in there because we're seeing a strong economy still with no dramatic inflationary prospects.