Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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The Nasdaq broke its support levels last week because of IBM, Cisco, and Computer Associates. The S&P was weighed down by its tech exposure. Another key story next week is whether the Dow follows the rest of the market or can it continue to hold in the gains.
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Profit taking will be key words today (Thursday) and over the next couple of weeks. The Fed's rate cut yesterday bodes well for the longer term but near term it is an excuse to take profits. Cisco's story is another excuse to take profits in technology.
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Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands.
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It's going to be another confidence building story the closer we get to the Fed meeting. I believe that the unemployment rate and the NAPM numbers will be the key numbers.
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This market is just one decent story away from destroying the bears. I can just feel the short-sellers getting ready to push the buy button if the market gets through these key levels.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
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The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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The blue-chips just turned down. Regardless, the retailers were up but really not enough to carry the market.
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The bias still seems to be to the upside. Buyers are optimistic and see the long-term side of the market. The downward pressure now is not that great. The money flow has just been too strong.
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The bias for today and tomorrow should still be to the upside because of the end of the quarter when you get portfolio adjustments.
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The barrage of economic data will be the one saving grace for the markets this week,
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The retail sales numbers we saw should have presumed a rally but we had some selling in Hewlett-Packard and NBC Internet. During the day, people started to realize that retail sales were good news.