Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
credit gives healing nobody saw
We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
broken exports flat month running second trade
Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
decline employment expecting
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
business change conditions latest rally stocks
Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.
drivers growth half leaving recovery sources
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.
amount month september tremendous weather
September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,
fact hit june orders wall
The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July.
activity building conditions early employment gain growth judging last outlook period start strong unlikely unusually warm weather winter
Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.
affects energy forecasts growth
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker,