Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
data december difficult economic financial markets month raising rates winter
Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read. It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market.
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
data fed markets month unlikely worry
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
arguing both data literally month people prices seen shown sides stop victory
It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong.
activity began bottom business catch clean confidence consumer cycle data durable economic entirely eventually expecting gains goods growth june moderate modest pointing time
We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being,
bad carrying data days news past reaction
The reaction to this data in the past would have been much more positive. These days only bad news is carrying weight.
areas data included surprise
Today's data included well-known as well as surprise areas of weakness.
bad condition data february indicative jobs large losing march several underlying
There are several large drags, in a statistical sense. The underlying condition is that we're probably losing jobs. But the February and March data are not indicative of how bad it really is.
data economic guide month noted poor single time
He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future,
below data decent fell june labor
If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend.
estimates ugly
Estimates have to come down. We're in for an ugly preannouncement season.
coming energy headline high inflation slow
Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,