Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
ahead creating demand fast jobs month moving supply
What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament.
billion build companies declines demand growth inventory per quarter rate second third
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.
demand employment growth heading labor seen stays strong towards year
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains,
credit gives healing nobody saw
We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
broken exports flat month running second trade
Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
decline employment expecting
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
business change conditions latest rally stocks
Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.
drivers growth half leaving recovery sources
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.
amount month september tremendous weather
September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,