Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
basis begun economic entire freeing generally growth high less living low periods productive resources rising stronger surprise
Freeing up less productive resources by accomplishing more with less is the entire basis for rising living standards. It shouldn't come as a surprise that stronger periods of economic growth have generally begun during periods of high unemployment, not low unemployment.
difference number outlook
Friday's number is not going to make much of a difference for the outlook for the economy.
damaging pace risk seen sign urgency
I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?
business change conditions latest rally stocks
Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.
drivers growth half leaving recovery sources
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.
amount month september tremendous weather
September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,
decline employment expecting
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
credit gives healing nobody saw
We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
broken exports flat month running second trade
Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.
available pool potential rare
It's one of those rare Goldilocks reports, ... The idea here that there is still potential slack, the pool of available labor.
data fed markets month unlikely worry
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
benchmark decline fit future household measure perfect seen
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.