Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
again coming economic good recovery seen
This kind of sequential recovery, this coming up from the base, has been as good as we've seen in any economic recovery at this stage, but again this is multiyear process,
benefits cracked fall fears quite worst
At worst it's a wash-out, ... I don't think the fears or the benefits of the dollar's fall are really quite as much as they're cracked up to be.
comforting entirely information turn worry year
This is not entirely comforting but you'd need a lot more information than one month's PPI at the turn of the year to worry about inflation,
advantages large periods slump
After periods of a large slump in employment, there may be advantages to canvassing homes,
below economy fairly far financial looks weak
This is a fairly big negative, correlated to other unfortunate news, like weak financial markets, which have their own impact. So far it still looks like the economy is growing, but below trend.
affects energy forecasts growth
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker,
folks mechanics
I think it comes down to the mechanics of how folks were counted.
bad condition data february indicative jobs large losing march several underlying
There are several large drags, in a statistical sense. The underlying condition is that we're probably losing jobs. But the February and March data are not indicative of how bad it really is.
data economic guide month noted poor single time
He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future,
action change markets
There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action.
activity building conditions early employment gain growth judging last outlook period start strong unlikely unusually warm weather winter
Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.
assuming counted department gave guidance held job labor orleans workers
The Labor Department gave guidance that workers held on payrolls would be counted as employed, even if they couldn't be on the job. Just assuming that everyone in New Orleans was out of a job was not the way to go.
assumed energy fed prices quarter reasonable rise view weakness
The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.
barrel economy move next oil prices
If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do.