Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
basis broader fed future goes language managing market mean might nearly next points rates regarding week whether
Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.
business continue cycle expansion expect fed fighting increased market policy somewhat successful visibility
We continue to expect a long, successful business cycle expansion amid well-known challenges. However, visibility has been somewhat reduced, and the Fed is not fighting off increased market expectations of policy tightening.
assumed energy fed prices quarter reasonable rise view weakness
The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.
data fed markets month unlikely worry
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
credit gives healing nobody saw
We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
broken exports flat month running second trade
Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
decline employment expecting
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
business change conditions latest rally stocks
Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.
drivers growth half leaving recovery sources
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.