Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
economic predicting risky
Predicting the long-awaited U.S. economic slowdown can be a risky business,
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Bearing in mind that the Fed wants higher inflation, the news is not unwelcome. And the market will remain firmly in the camp that the Fed will not tighten soon, ... Nevertheless, the risks from the PPI are easy to see and look real in light of the big decline of the dollar and rise in import costs that preceded them.
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The biggest risk (to energy supplies) is natural gas prices because there is no meaningful emergency inventory,
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Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.
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High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.
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The inflation data does not take the Fed out of the picture. It does, however, remove the risk of the Fed having to tighten 50 basis points on June 30.
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The shift in the Fed chair will be seamless,
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Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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U.S. consumers are feeling the benefits of higher incomes and are spending more to reflect their good moods, ... Buoyed by record confidence, income growth, and a super-tight jobs market, the consumer is showing no signs of slowing and should continue to propel the U.S. economy.
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When the 10-year yield got to 4.4 percent Tuesday, I said this was probably a short-term buying opportunity and that we would see some correction.
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While we would not get too excited, these data are just the right stuff to further trends already under way in financial markets. Whispers about Fed easing are sure to follow.
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June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary.
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U.S. industrial activity is improving, but it can't be described as healthy just yet.
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Wages are still running a bit hot for comfort, the jobless rate is still quite low and the underlying trend in employment (especially full-time) remains strong.