Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
activity additional brings buildings gradually provide quarters starts support
Starts at year-end 2003 will provide additional support for GDP during the first two quarters of 2004 as construction activity gradually brings these buildings to completion.
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Clearly the new paradigm is alive and well, ... While (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan downplayed the policy significance of CPI in his remarks last night, it is still a major positive for investors that core inflation remains benign.
core energy fed high hike inflation likely march mild months prices rate remain risks skewed track
High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.
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Armed with the weaker U.S. dollar, commodity prices heading north, and a strengthening economy, rising inflation pressure is still likely to emerge as a concern for the Fed. But not yet. Not yet.
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The Fed might have been in a dilemma if signs of slower growth were coupled with signs of a wage/price spiral. However, that is emphatically not the case. The underlying inflation outlook is not a problem for the Fed or the financial markets.
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Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.
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I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation.
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These two key reports reinforce the underlying story of red-hot growth and stable inflation, which was the hallmark of the U.S. economy in 1999,
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I do think, however, that it is very important that we, as individuals, protect ourselves; that businesses make contingency plans; and that governments at all levels ? public health officials everywhere ? do what is necessary to minimize the danger of a potential pandemic.
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However, there are deepening questions as to how far they will go beyond that point, especially given the looming hit to growth from the spike in oil and gas prices and the renewed Canadian dollar rise.
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The Fed and the markets will see few signs of slowing in these figures, but little reason to fear an impending inflation acceleration either ,
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The Canadian poultry industry is, in general, little dependent on exports or imports, but new provincial rules forcing the confinement of birds make the practice of free-range raising more difficult.
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The Christmas season this year might well bring cheer, but consumption growth next year is bound to slow, ... From an annual pace of nearly 4.0 percent in 2004, consumer spending will likely grow at a 3.5 percent rate this year, decelerating to a 2.25 percent pace in 2006.
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In a vibrant economy, you will always have some prices rising and some falling. That's a good thing, and that's what seems to be happening at this stage.