Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.
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Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend.
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This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.
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I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation.
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We remain of the view that next week's rate hike will not be the Fed's last work this cycle. Indeed, they will likely eventually unwind all of last fall's crisis-induced easing.
early seeing
What we're seeing is reminiscent of the early 1990s -- a jobless recovery.
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What little data I've seen suggests that only about 25 percent of businesses have taken deliberate, serious action. And certainly the larger corporations would be the ones that would begin the process. Let's face it, a small company probably would not have the capability of taking very dramatic action.
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Worry not, the longest expansion in American history still has legs.
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There is no longer a shadow of doubt that the U.S. economy is downshifting rapidly; the only question is how deep the slowdown goes, ... We do not expect to see recession in 2001, but we certainly expect to see significantly slower growth with continued moderating inflation.
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This will provide some offset to the drag caused by the hurricane's direct damage and flooding, which, along with the massive amounts of money being deployed in the affected area, suggest that the ultimate impact of Katrina on GDP might prove more fleeting than first thought.
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This production figure emphasizes that the US economy had solid underlying momentum heading into month-end,
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Overall, this can be viewed as more evidence that the consumer is hanging in well despite the run-up in oil prices and growing equity market volatility.
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Right now, the acceleration in commodity prices tips the scales for a 16th and a 17th rate hike by the Fed.