Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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Right now, it appears that the (Fed) believes that the odds are better than 50-50 that another 25 basis point rate hike will be warranted.
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My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend.
number quite weak
So I don't think the number was quite as weak as the headline.
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October and November ... sales each registered substantial gains (excluding autos), pointing to a reasonable fourth-quarter consumer spending figure when all is said and done.
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There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.
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This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.
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This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out. It does, however, hint in that direction.
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There has obviously been quite a bit of dissension as to the governmental policies, the slashing in fiscal expenditure, potential tax increases, as well as the astronomical increases in interest rates.
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While this report yielded few surprises, it simply highlights the relentless strength in the economy and provides more ammunition for the Fed to continue tightening policy,
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While the rise in core prices is a bit uncomfortably high, this stand-alone report is not evidence that soaring energy prices are feeding into other prices.
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While overall U.S. growth slowed, it by no means is flirting with a stall; soft landing chances were increased by this news, ... Indeed, some may ask, 'what landing?'
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While much of the growth surge reflects stellar productivity gains, this pace of growth is way too strong for the Fed,
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We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway.
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.