Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.
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Further widening in the trade deficit in the months ahead is very likely given that the surge in oil prices will drive imports higher and that there has been no let-up in the domestic economy.
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High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.
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About six months ago, there was really no concern, and I think it makes sense to be concerned.
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The modest downtrend in order growth is pointing to some moderation in the months ahead,
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We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway.
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This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out. It does, however, hint in that direction.
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There has obviously been quite a bit of dissension as to the governmental policies, the slashing in fiscal expenditure, potential tax increases, as well as the astronomical increases in interest rates.
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U.S. consumers are feeling the benefits of higher incomes and are spending more to reflect their good moods, ... Buoyed by record confidence, income growth, and a super-tight jobs market, the consumer is showing no signs of slowing and should continue to propel the U.S. economy.
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Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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While this report yielded few surprises, it simply highlights the relentless strength in the economy and provides more ammunition for the Fed to continue tightening policy,
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While the rise in core prices is a bit uncomfortably high, this stand-alone report is not evidence that soaring energy prices are feeding into other prices.
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.
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There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.