Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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U.S. consumers are feeling the benefits of higher incomes and are spending more to reflect their good moods, ... Buoyed by record confidence, income growth, and a super-tight jobs market, the consumer is showing no signs of slowing and should continue to propel the U.S. economy.
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There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.
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The big dip in inventories is a good sign if we are looking for a glimmer of hope here. Maybe we are at a stage where production can pick up again.
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It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.
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The Fed might have been in a dilemma if signs of slower growth were coupled with signs of a wage/price spiral. However, that is emphatically not the case. The underlying inflation outlook is not a problem for the Fed or the financial markets.
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Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.
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The Fed and the markets will see few signs of slowing in these figures, but little reason to fear an impending inflation acceleration either ,
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The shift in the Fed chair will be seamless,
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Predicting the long-awaited U.S. economic slowdown can be a risky business,
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Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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When the 10-year yield got to 4.4 percent Tuesday, I said this was probably a short-term buying opportunity and that we would see some correction.
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While we would not get too excited, these data are just the right stuff to further trends already under way in financial markets. Whispers about Fed easing are sure to follow.
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June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary.