Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
curve fed longer measured move pace react whether word yield
For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.
coming jobs likely maybe month
We're more likely to get between 100,000 to 200,000, maybe 250,000 jobs a month in the coming months, and fluctuating -- very choppy,
consumer continue employment influence labor movement recovery sideways simply single throughout
We're going to continue to see this throughout 2004, this sideways movement in consumer confidence, simply because we're going to see a very choppy recovery in the labor market, and employment is the single most important influence on consumer attitudes.
blame buck economy people stops ultimately upset
Ultimately the buck stops with the president. If people are upset about the economy and want to blame someone, that someone is probably going to be the president,
companies hiring holiday last less retailers
Retailers and construction companies just weren't hiring last month. Retailers did less hiring this holiday season.
fed looking raises rates until
Looking at where we are right now, I don't think the Fed raises rates until 2005.
argument backing days knew later nine ridiculous venezuela willing
The argument is that Venezuela is not willing or they're not going to be able to (comply with the cuts). Here it is eight, nine days later and they're already backing out. We knew it wasn't going to last, but this is a little on the ridiculous side.
fed hike intent october rate rule
I think for all intent and purposes, you really have to rule out a Fed rate hike on October 5,
caution coming creation diminished economic entire growth guns job month since stellar stick street trend
We caution investors; one month of stellar job creation does not a trend make. And since the entire Street has diminished economic growth projections for 2005, we have to stick to our guns of slower, not stronger, job creation in coming months.
effect fourth heard increase inflation inordinate number price seen supposed third until
We have not seen any inflation yet, but what we have heard is an inordinate number of price increase announcements in the third or fourth quarter, but they were not supposed to take effect until Jan. 1.
cause rapid
The pre-auction announcement speculation was the cause for the rapid sell-off in the 30-year bond,
company heard intentions last ten
You haven't heard one story in the last ten months, 12 months, of any company saying, hey, we have intentions of hiring. We're going to be hiring. No company has said that.
beginning prolonged
I think it's the beginning of a prolonged slowdown, but not a recession.
along companies conference earnings fingers general listening people sentiment tone trigger
The sentiment I get from the Beige Book, along with listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, and just the general tone of my conversations with people who have their fingers on the trigger of hiring, say companies are just not doing much of it.