Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
believe boil housing market moved
I believe that the housing market has moved from a boil to a simmer.
curve fed longer measured move pace react whether word yield
For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.
consumer continue employment influence labor movement recovery sideways simply single throughout
We're going to continue to see this throughout 2004, this sideways movement in consumer confidence, simply because we're going to see a very choppy recovery in the labor market, and employment is the single most important influence on consumer attitudes.
economy fed hikes hit market measured move pace soft
The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.
behind creation job labor likely movements next roses worst year
It's not all roses in the labor market. I think the worst is behind us, but we're more likely to have flat, or sideways, movements in job creation for the next year, year and a half.
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
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Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
driven fed funds higher hike inflation oil people raising rate stop threat
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
buying generators insurance living outlook people plan protect rather sign smart sounds translate weaker
People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
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Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.