Richard Berner
Richard Berner
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
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Change is a constant of the U.S. employment picture. New technology keeps changing the nature of work and the nature jobs. I can't tell you what new technology will have spawned new jobs five years from now, but my guess is there will be one.
abroad dollar earnings global good growth help policy spur weaker
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well.
bust consumer spending worries
Worries of a housing-led consumer spending bust are overblown.
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I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
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We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
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With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
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We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.
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They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
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Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
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The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
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The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
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The Fed truly wants to get inflation somewhat higher -- back into the comfort zone. Why not say where that comfort zone is?
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The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle.