Richard Berner
Richard Berner
account budget current deficits expanding market pay
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
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I believe that such fears are overblown. Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.
advance believe businesses early fears gains hiring indicate job labor plans slow stages survey true
I believe that such fears are overblown, ... Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.
change changing constant employment five guess jobs keeps nature technology work
Change is a constant of the U.S. employment picture. New technology keeps changing the nature of work and the nature jobs. I can't tell you what new technology will have spawned new jobs five years from now, but my guess is there will be one.
few home next prices
Home prices will rust, not bust, for the next few years.
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Investors on Wall Street are going to have to learn a lot about these new faces before they feel comfortable. I don't think this means any change in monetary policy but there are new people.
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The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
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The Fed truly wants to get inflation somewhat higher -- back into the comfort zone. Why not say where that comfort zone is?
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The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
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Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
none oil shocks supply tax
Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
decline drop likely looks sales vehicle
It's likely we got a decline in sales. We've had a drop in vehicle sales and it also looks like back-to-school was on the disappointing side.
close
It's a close call, a very close call.
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The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle.