Richard Berner
Richard Berner
ensure fed inflation move perhaps promptly require risks stay upside
Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low.
crude farms hold people price tank
Why should people hold crude in tank farms if they think the price is going to come down?
both economic effects mean rather seem sides
Both sides seem to be pretty well entrenched in their positions, which would mean the economic effects could be rather appreciable.
none oil shocks supply tax
Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
balance fed funds likely move rate reaches risks sidelines until
The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
decline drop likely looks sales vehicle
It's likely we got a decline in sales. We've had a drop in vehicle sales and it also looks like back-to-school was on the disappointing side.
business currently economy hiring midst profound
The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle.
close
It's a close call, a very close call.
abroad dollar earnings global good growth help policy spur weaker
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well.
bust consumer spending worries
Worries of a housing-led consumer spending bust are overblown.
banks bond coming fed hard inflation market message pricing signals smoke stock thick
The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.
activity both carry corporate downside earnings economic equity fed pace premium recession risk time values
If we are right that both the pace of economic activity and corporate earnings are still fraught with near-term, downside risk, equity values and risk spreads will carry a recession uncertainty premium for some time -- a premium that the Fed will still want to counter.
either higher move rates remarks timing year
Greenspan's remarks will be significant, either because of what he does say or what he doesn't say, ... They will move rates higher this year but the timing of that may have changed.
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.