Richard Berner
Richard Berner
abroad dollar earnings global good growth help policy spur weaker
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
believes consistent current policy price
Certainly, current policy is ultra-accommodative and no policy-maker believes that it is consistent with price stability,
change faces investors learn means monetary policy street wall
Investors on Wall Street are going to have to learn a lot about these new faces before they feel comfortable. I don't think this means any change in monetary policy but there are new people.
bust consumer spending worries
Worries of a housing-led consumer spending bust are overblown.
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
economy economy-and-economics housing prices sales surprise
I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
expect fed federal funds increase rate rather september stop
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
account budget current deficits expanding market pay
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
believe contain fed further future inflation move
We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.
latitude question space timing
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
none oil shocks supply tax
Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
balance fed funds likely move rate reaches risks sidelines until
The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.