Richard Berner
Richard Berner
abroad dollar earnings global good growth help policy spur weaker
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well.
activity both carry corporate downside earnings economic equity fed pace premium recession risk time values
If we are right that both the pace of economic activity and corporate earnings are still fraught with near-term, downside risk, equity values and risk spreads will carry a recession uncertainty premium for some time -- a premium that the Fed will still want to counter.
earnings fearing people surprise
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside.
balance fed funds likely move rate reaches risks sidelines until
The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
latitude question space timing
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
comfort fed higher inflation somewhat truly wants zone
The Fed truly wants to get inflation somewhat higher -- back into the comfort zone. Why not say where that comfort zone is?
none oil shocks supply tax
Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
business currently economy hiring midst profound
The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle.
ensure fed inflation move perhaps promptly require risks stay upside
Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low.
energy erase fall feeling growth improve mix prices
Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
banks bond coming fed hard inflation market message pricing signals smoke stock thick
The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.