Richard Berner
Richard Berner
compared easy past reading year
Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.
energy erase fall feeling growth improve mix prices
Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
economy economy-and-economics housing prices sales surprise
I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
expect fed federal funds increase rate rather september stop
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
account budget current deficits expanding market pay
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
believe contain fed further future inflation move
We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.
earnings fearing people surprise
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside.
bust contribute courtesy crash home past reduced values wave
I don't think home values will crash -- they will rust, not bust. Demographics have underpinned demand, courtesy of a wave of immigration in the past 16 years that reduced supply, and you don't see the speculative overhang that could contribute to a bust in home values.
advance believe businesses early fears gains hiring indicate job labor plans slow stages survey true
I believe that such fears are overblown. Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.
advance believe businesses early fears gains hiring indicate job labor plans slow stages survey true
I believe that such fears are overblown, ... Advance labor-market indicators like Manpower's survey of businesses indicate that hiring plans are on the rise. So while it is true that job gains have been slow in coming, they typically are anemic in the early stages of recovery.
believes consistent current policy price
Certainly, current policy is ultra-accommodative and no policy-maker believes that it is consistent with price stability,