Richard Berner
Richard Berner
abroad dollar earnings global good growth help policy spur weaker
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well.
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
context costs economic global key slack strong
The key reason: Dwindling economic slack and escalating costs in the context of strong U.S. and global growth.
balance economy fact global growth looking pace strong underlying
The underlying pace of the economy is strong. The fact that global growth is looking better will keep the economy strong through the balance of this year.
crude farms hold people price tank
Why should people hold crude in tank farms if they think the price is going to come down?
bust contribute courtesy crash home past reduced values wave
I don't think home values will crash -- they will rust, not bust. Demographics have underpinned demand, courtesy of a wave of immigration in the past 16 years that reduced supply, and you don't see the speculative overhang that could contribute to a bust in home values.
both economic effects mean rather seem sides
Both sides seem to be pretty well entrenched in their positions, which would mean the economic effects could be rather appreciable.
ensure fed inflation move perhaps promptly require risks stay upside
Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low.
believes consistent current policy price
Certainly, current policy is ultra-accommodative and no policy-maker believes that it is consistent with price stability,
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
economy economy-and-economics housing prices sales surprise
I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
expect fed federal funds increase rate rather september stop
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
activity both carry corporate downside earnings economic equity fed pace premium recession risk time values
If we are right that both the pace of economic activity and corporate earnings are still fraught with near-term, downside risk, equity values and risk spreads will carry a recession uncertainty premium for some time -- a premium that the Fed will still want to counter.
earnings fearing people surprise
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside.