Richard Berner
Richard Berner
latitude question space timing
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
banks bond coming fed hard inflation market message pricing signals smoke stock thick
The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.
compared easy past reading year
Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
doubt factor hope iraq means spring
I don't think there's any doubt that the uncertainty over Iraq has been corrosive, but it's by no means the only factor hindering growth. The hope that if you take away that uncertainty and you unveil a coiled spring is probably overdone.
fourth improvement quarter slow
The fourth quarter is going to be very sluggish, indeed. We'll see some improvement in the first quarter, but it's a slow grind.
context costs economic global key slack strong
The key reason: Dwindling economic slack and escalating costs in the context of strong U.S. and global growth.
higher percent quarter rate
The unemployment rate in the first quarter should have been at least 6.3 percent -- significantly higher than January-February's 5.75-percent average,
balance economy fact global growth looking pace strong underlying
The underlying pace of the economy is strong. The fact that global growth is looking better will keep the economy strong through the balance of this year.