Richard Berner
Richard Berner
energy erase fall feeling growth improve mix prices
Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
economy economy-and-economics housing prices sales surprise
I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
believes consistent current policy price
Certainly, current policy is ultra-accommodative and no policy-maker believes that it is consistent with price stability,
crude farms hold people price tank
Why should people hold crude in tank farms if they think the price is going to come down?
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
few home next prices
Home prices will rust, not bust, for the next few years.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
compared easy past reading year
Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
expect fed federal funds increase rate rather september stop
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
account budget current deficits expanding market pay
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
believe contain fed further future inflation move
We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.
earnings fearing people surprise
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside.