Oscar Gonzalez
Oscar Gonzalez
alert fed future high numbers though
Even though the numbers are soothing, the Fed still is on high alert for a future flare-up in prices,
additional both coming fed higher katrina oil prices raising side spending stimulus suggest
Higher oil prices and the stimulus coming from additional spending after Katrina both suggest that Fed would be on the side of raising rates.
along begin business consumers continue economy falter few fuel gear higher later next shift spending sustain worry
Consumers will continue to spend, and that will keep the economy chugging along for the next few months. But without some help, I worry that consumers could begin to falter later in the year. We need more business spending to fuel the economy's shift into a higher gear and sustain the recovery.
against confidence consumer decrease downside improvement improving including increase jobs protection slump solid spending suggest sustained
While improving consumer confidence probably suggests downside protection against a slump in spending, it does not suggest we will see spending take off. We still need a sustained improvement in the jobs market, including a significant decrease in unemployment with a solid increase in real wages.
albeit direction further good improvement news signs
The good news is that we're moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction and there are signs of further improvement on the horizon,
continue door easing economy expect fed open pressures since
Since the economy is softening, I expect inflationary pressures to subside. The door is still open for the Fed to continue easing rates, as necessary.
crude energy front mean nobody prices record relief sees time trade
Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon.
additional benefit businesses cause corporate costs critical cutting delay further lean rising sluggish
Rising benefit costs are cutting into already lean corporate profits. This may cause businesses to further delay additional hiring, which is critical to boosting the sluggish economy.
act both business confidence consumer deeper fed further greenspan rate remains sooner street timing wall
I think the Fed will act aggressively. The timing remains to be seen, but both Main Street and Wall Street are pleading for further rate cuts, so I think Greenspan will respond. The sooner and deeper a rate cut, the sooner consumer and business confidence should improve.
biggest blow consumers crushing decline employment factor growth job october report rise sharp shows single
If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.
control data err fed inflation keeping price recent side whether worry
I don't think recent price data suggests that inflation is dead. The Fed has to worry about whether or not it is keeping inflation under control and it would probably like to err on the side of caution.
energy given prices push supply taking
Given the tightness of supply and demand, it isn't taking much to push energy prices sharply higher.
beginning both dollar evidence exports future good hope narrow positive sign trade
There is evidence that the weakening dollar also is beginning to have a positive effect. This is a good sign both for the future of our exports and for our hope to narrow the trade gap.
interest move percent somewhere
I would think the probability of a move (on interest rates) would be somewhere around the 40 percent range.