Oscar Gonzalez
Oscar Gonzalez
continue economic economy expect fact improve jobs rest suggest
Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.
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I think the Fed will act aggressively. The timing remains to be seen, but both Main Street and Wall Street are pleading for further rate cuts, so I think Greenspan will respond. The sooner and deeper a rate cut, the sooner consumer and business confidence should improve.
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If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.
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I don't think recent price data suggests that inflation is dead. The Fed has to worry about whether or not it is keeping inflation under control and it would probably like to err on the side of caution.
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Given the tightness of supply and demand, it isn't taking much to push energy prices sharply higher.
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There is evidence that the weakening dollar also is beginning to have a positive effect. This is a good sign both for the future of our exports and for our hope to narrow the trade gap.
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I would think the probability of a move (on interest rates) would be somewhere around the 40 percent range.
last statement
I don't think there is really anything new in here. We probably know as much as we did as of the last statement in January.
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Before the Fed went ahead and raised by a half-point, it would probably choose to eliminate the measured language.
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Higher oil prices and the stimulus coming from additional spending after Katrina both suggest that Fed would be on the side of raising rates.
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The employment situation, which has the most direct impact on everyone's lives and outlook, is still precarious, and that's causing a lot of anxiety. They're worried about their jobs, but at the same time, I think they sense that this mild recession appears to be ending, and that will raise their hopes.
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The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.
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The latest economic releases are just another sign that the economy is quite sick. I am quite confident the Fed will react aggressively.
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The longer we go along this path, the clearer it becomes that the Fed may have to jolt consumers and investors with a more aggressive policy,