Oscar Gonzalez
Oscar Gonzalez
case facing inflation rising slowing word worst
Foreboding. That's the only word for today's report. We could be facing our worst case scenario: rising inflation in a slowing economy.
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Strong but moderating retail sales and improving productivity suggest an economy that should continue to grow while avoiding overheating, ... The reports would seem to make it less likely that the Fed will need to move again this year.
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We're finally getting consistently good news on the labor markets and even an occasional positive surprise like today's report.
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We are possibly on the brink of war, so it would have been a great surprise if consumer confidence hadn't fallen.
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We are looking at a growth rate somewhere in between 6.5 percent and 7 percent at this point. I think it's really going to be up there.
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The overall trend is still pretty dismal in terms of imbalances between imports and exports.
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The report isn't so tame as to deter the Fed from bumping rates another notch, especially with Y2K fears dissipating and consumers showing no signs of fatigue. However, it should ease market fears that the Fed will need to tighten several more times.
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Stopping at this point is off the table unless there is some unexpected piece of news like a sudden collapse in the housing market.
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Until businesses feel a real need for more hands-until productivity alone won't allow them to reach their earnings goals-they won't begin hiring.
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I think the Fed will act aggressively. The timing remains to be seen, but both Main Street and Wall Street are pleading for further rate cuts, so I think Greenspan will respond. The sooner and deeper a rate cut, the sooner consumer and business confidence should improve.
interest move percent somewhere
I would think the probability of a move (on interest rates) would be somewhere around the 40 percent range.
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Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.
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Rising benefit costs are cutting into already lean corporate profits. This may cause businesses to further delay additional hiring, which is critical to boosting the sluggish economy.
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Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon.