Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
believe consumer fatigue firmly further positive signs spending stay year
I firmly believe consumer spending will stay in positive territory, but I think we will see further signs of consumer fatigue as the year progresses.
cause data economic fed given hold people quite remain volatility wonder
Given that the economic data will be strong, people will wonder why the Fed is not moving, which could cause some volatility in the markets. But we think the Fed will remain on hold for quite some time.
best brave iraq naive oil opinion prices putting races simply situation worst
If that's the way the world is, then that's fantastic, because if oil prices go down and the Iraq situation disappears, we're off to the races again. But I think that opinion is at worst naive and at best simply putting on a brave face.
consumer defied healthy kept past recession spending year
For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.
antidote fed five four next
For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that's still very strong. It's inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.
doubt expected extremely housing knock market remains robust
I don't think there's really any doubt the housing market remains extremely robust and growing. I had expected housing to fade. Now that we're out of recession, I don't really know what would knock it down at this point.
amount cut data fed stay stream tremendous unless
I don't think there is a tremendous amount the Fed can do, but they can't stay on the sidelines. Unless the data stream improves, they have to cut rates.
fed greater inherently meeting next statement until
I don't see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We'll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible.
continue favorable fed match raising rates scope support tends terms yield
I don't see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if they hike, the yield differentials are still favorable to the dollar.
concern future hiring job next robust shedding stopped
I don't see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We've stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won't see very much job growth.
causing excited markets near
In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.
hear interest market rates stock talk
Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package,
among consumers personally shut view
I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.
connection durable economic economy goods heavy industry layoffs machinery overall segments
If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.