Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
consumer defied healthy kept past recession spending year
For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.
antidote fed five four next
For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that's still very strong. It's inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.
doubt expected extremely housing knock market remains robust
I don't think there's really any doubt the housing market remains extremely robust and growing. I had expected housing to fade. Now that we're out of recession, I don't really know what would knock it down at this point.
amount cut data fed stay stream tremendous unless
I don't think there is a tremendous amount the Fed can do, but they can't stay on the sidelines. Unless the data stream improves, they have to cut rates.
fed greater inherently meeting next statement until
I don't see this as an inherently dollar-positive statement. We'll see much greater uncertainty around the Fed at least until the next meeting because this statement is so flexible.
continue favorable fed match raising rates scope support tends terms yield
I don't see the scope for the ECB to match the Fed in terms of raising rates and this will continue to support the dollar. The ECB tends to lag the Fed and even if they hike, the yield differentials are still favorable to the dollar.
concern future hiring job next robust shedding stopped
I don't see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We've stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won't see very much job growth.
consumer factors fourth growth lifted looked mean months pace quarter six slower spending third weak
The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
add confidence consumer consumers fed last plus rate reasons savings support
The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
causing excited markets near
In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.
hear interest market rates stock talk
Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package,
aligned april believe contracted eclipse economy happen june perfect rather recession second sooner stars
The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we're to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession in the second half, then it should happen sooner rather than later.