Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
apply china clearly emerging market rest singled
They have clearly started to apply more pressure. They have singled out China and the rest of the emerging market economies.
grit wheels
There is substantial post-bubble grit in the wheels right now.
earlier gains release solid support
This is a solid (GDP) release and should support the dollar's gains from earlier this morning,
concerned cut economy fed fine might pain rates remains shock
This is not a 'ripping off the Band-Aid' kind of situation, where you know how much the pain will be and that you'll be fine afterwards. We don't know how well the economy has healed. The Fed remains very concerned ... that they might overshoot and give the economy such a shock they'll have to cut rates again.
aggressive markets measure might preferred pricing
This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation...and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
activity eyebrows fairly high housing leaves level markets number raise rate worry
The weaker-than-expected housing number still leaves housing at a fairly high level of activity but will raise some eyebrows as markets worry about the (Federal Reserve) overshooting (with rate hikes).
conditions cut fed improvement inflation lower quarter signs sitting
It's not in my forecast, but it's probable, a quarter from now, if we're sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and inflation edging lower -- those are the conditions under which the Fed has cut recently.
data dollar euro happen japanese positive rally versus zone
There really has not been justification for the dollar rally to happen exclusively versus the euro, especially because euro zone data has been kind of positive and Japanese data has kind of languished in a funk.
both continue continuing data dollar fed headline increasing looks means price raise report rise solid supporting yields
The report was dollar positive. With the combination of solid data for the headline and what looks like increasing price pressure, that means you are going to see U.S. yields continue to rise and the Fed continuing to raise rates, both supporting the dollar.
certainly consider creation economic expect fed job level reflect report stage step taking towards
The report is certainly better than in December, but it just doesn't reflect the level of job creation we'd expect to see at this stage of the economic recovery, or the job creation the Fed would need to see to even consider taking that first step towards tightening.
add bias ease effort fed growing growth markets move policy rate somewhere sustain ways within
There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had. I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.
consumer federal growth moderate reserve spending time warning
This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.
confidence crucial forward good patriotic question reflected rise simply spending
This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it's simply a patriotic rally.
amount anxiety confusion due economic lock military recent reminder tremendous weakness whether
This is yet another reminder that policy-makers don't have a lock on knowledge. There's a tremendous amount of confusion now about whether or not the recent weakness due to military anxiety is going to end up being self-reinforcing economic weakness.