Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
bottom close domestic facing fourth gotten gross hit product quarters recession shrinking zero
We may have hit bottom here, to some extent. We're facing two quarters -- the fourth of 2001 and the first of 2002 -- of close to zero growth. But this may be the first recession we've gotten through without two quarters of consecutive shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).
bottom close domestic facing fourth gotten gross hit product quarters recession shrinking zero
We may have hit bottom here, to some extent, ... We're facing two quarters -- the fourth of 2001 and the first of 2002 -- of close to zero growth. But this may be the first recession we've gotten through without two quarters of consecutive shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).
best brave iraq naive oil opinion prices putting races simply situation worst
If that's the way the world is, then that's fantastic, because if oil prices go down and the Iraq situation disappears, we're off to the races again. But I think that opinion is at worst naive and at best simply putting on a brave face.
asked hospital manager orders palm purchasing somebody
Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
downward focusing growth initially markets revision seem
Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.
afford cut downside fed market markets pricing rate surprise
Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.
both carry causing currency driving funding japanese market swiss switch yields
Market expectations for both are very fluid. All of this is driving Japanese yields up and causing the market to switch from the yen into the Swiss franc as the funding currency for carry trades.
add bottom closely companies line means number prices shows slow sluggish time
Every time you see a number that shows prices decelerating, immediately you have to think of sluggish re-hiring, ... It means companies will still be closely guarding the bottom line and will be slow to add to labor.
capital fed fine markets situations stop
The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They're functioning just fine -- they're just really negative.
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There still is evidence that the most important sector of the economy, the labor market, is still only in the process of stabilizing. It's not in full-fledged recovery yet.
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On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.
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The 'new economy' was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and '98.
among consumers personally shut view
I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.
connection durable economic economy goods heavy industry layoffs machinery overall segments
If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.