Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
consumer factors fatigue goodness report severe special
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
bounce chance cyclical expect
This really reduces the chance of a cyclical bounce in spending, which is what we typically expect to see in a recovery.
fed minutes puts spotlight
This really puts the spotlight very acutely on the Fed minutes this afternoon.
becomes deficit dependent dollar expensive foreign imports reliance shows trade vicious
This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.
elsewhere fed impact interest issue people question rates smart
This whole question of the impact on interest rates is really complicated, but a lot of smart people at the Fed and elsewhere have said it's not really a big issue -- it's only suppressing long-term interest rates at the margin.
businesses circular confidence consumers effect hiring lay lose nervous people production stop
There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.
cause consumer employment growth job shock shut situation spending
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
activity continued growth job means picking stay
With M&A activity picking up, productivity growth will stay robust, and that means continued new efficiencies, and a lot of that will overshadow new job creation.
bottom close domestic facing fourth gotten gross hit product quarters recession shrinking zero
We may have hit bottom here, to some extent. We're facing two quarters -- the fourth of 2001 and the first of 2002 -- of close to zero growth. But this may be the first recession we've gotten through without two quarters of consecutive shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).
bottom close domestic facing fourth gotten gross hit product quarters recession shrinking zero
We may have hit bottom here, to some extent, ... We're facing two quarters -- the fourth of 2001 and the first of 2002 -- of close to zero growth. But this may be the first recession we've gotten through without two quarters of consecutive shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).
april bad downside everybody geared markets month retail surprise toward
If we get a downside surprise in retail sales, everybody will shrug it off. We all know that April was a bad month for the economy; the markets are really geared toward May.
higher housing last market rates situation worried
If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.
certainly data economy looks shape
Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.
business businesses concerned confidence costs cutting environment investment remains
Business confidence remains very, very fragile, and we're still in an environment where businesses are more concerned with cutting costs than with ramping up investment projects.