Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
behaves record seen surprise
We've never seen how this index behaves in a recovery; we've never seen it in anything but a downturn. It doesn't surprise me that we'd get record levels, now that manufacturing is recovering.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
ahead bonds dollar euro forecast gotten markets optimistic seen signs size strength themselves
We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.
across continue data dollar economic remains rising seen solid strong support treasury yield yields
U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.
actual certainly clearly consumer equivalent number outlook output people remains seen translate understand
A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
assets attractive current declining deficit dollar foreign further less means pressure puts vicious
What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar.
consumer gap hard shutting trade unless
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.
bear burden cries deaf euro falling wish
Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears. Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.
bear burden cries deaf euro falling wish
Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears, ... Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.
ball bouncing driveway easiest event fairly garage onto roof slope sure unclear
Probably the easiest way to think about the Sept. 11 event is to think of bouncing a ball off the roof of a garage onto the driveway, ... The ball's bouncing around, and it's still unclear what the slope of the driveway is. But we can be fairly sure it's sloping up.
ball changes economy eye faster fed larger outlook state stock tries underlying
People's outlook for the economy changes much faster than the underlying state of the economy. The Fed tries to keep its eye on the larger ball and not on the ping-pong ball of the stock market.
becomes dependent driver economy gets housing key sector slowing vulnerable
As the economy gets more and more dependent on housing being the key driver of growth, the economy becomes more and more vulnerable to that sector slowing down.