Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
ball changes economy eye faster fed larger outlook state stock tries underlying
People's outlook for the economy changes much faster than the underlying state of the economy. The Fed tries to keep its eye on the larger ball and not on the ping-pong ball of the stock market.
becomes dependent driver economy gets housing key sector slowing vulnerable
As the economy gets more and more dependent on housing being the key driver of growth, the economy becomes more and more vulnerable to that sector slowing down.
certainly data economy looks shape
Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.
absorb economy effects fed hike national people rate seem seems strong
Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.
accepting buy carry changed compared dollar economy either fact fed high markets raising rates resistance rest strong stubborn
When we started the year, the markets were reticent to buy into either a strong U.S. economy or the Fed raising rates to 5 percent. What has changed is the market's very stubborn resistance to accepting the fact that the dollar has a pretty high carry compared to the rest of the world.
actual continues domestic drawing economics economy-and-economics everybody fed final forecast hard learn market minus rate solid
Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.
bin dollar economy falling fits led risk tape view
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.
concerned cut economy fed fine might pain rates remains shock
This is not a 'ripping off the Band-Aid' kind of situation, where you know how much the pain will be and that you'll be fine afterwards. We don't know how well the economy has healed. The Fed remains very concerned ... that they might overshoot and give the economy such a shock they'll have to cut rates again.
connection durable economic economy goods heavy industry layoffs machinery overall segments
If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.
aligned april believe contracted eclipse economy happen june perfect rather recession second sooner stars
The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we're to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession in the second half, then it should happen sooner rather than later.
economy further recovery state stimulus underlying weak
The underlying state of the economy is on weak footing, and we're going to need further stimulus to keep the recovery on track.
battered bounce early economy sector seeing troubles whether
The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it's too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we're seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April. We have to see now whether or not that continues.
assets attractive current declining deficit dollar foreign further less means pressure puts vicious
What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar.
consumer gap hard shutting trade unless
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.