Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
building components furniture given housing robust stronger
You had big components down that should not be down, such as appliances, furniture and building materials. These should be stronger given the robust housing market.
business convinced leaders maintained means numbers sales strong
What this means is that business leaders are not convinced that strong sales numbers will be maintained on or at the same level.
consumer factors fatigue goodness report severe special
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
bounce chance cyclical expect
This really reduces the chance of a cyclical bounce in spending, which is what we typically expect to see in a recovery.
fed minutes puts spotlight
This really puts the spotlight very acutely on the Fed minutes this afternoon.
becomes deficit dependent dollar expensive foreign imports reliance shows trade vicious
This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.
behaves record seen surprise
We've never seen how this index behaves in a recovery; we've never seen it in anything but a downturn. It doesn't surprise me that we'd get record levels, now that manufacturing is recovering.
business consumer equipment increases output positive solid
This was a pretty positive number, with solid increases in output of business equipment and consumer goods.
elsewhere fed impact interest issue people question rates smart
This whole question of the impact on interest rates is really complicated, but a lot of smart people at the Fed and elsewhere have said it's not really a big issue -- it's only suppressing long-term interest rates at the margin.
businesses circular confidence consumers effect hiring lay lose nervous people production stop
There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.
change data hikes inflation policy pricing radar rate screen time
We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.
forward global momentum
Without the U.S., there's not much forward momentum in the global economy.
coming consumer employment numbers phenomenal resilience swayed
Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.
conditions cut fed improvement inflation lower quarter signs sitting
It's not in my forecast, but it's probable, a quarter from now, if we're sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and inflation edging lower -- those are the conditions under which the Fed has cut recently.