Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
board conference consumer everybody improvement jump last looking massive measure michigan sentiment
We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
ahead beast consumer exuberance fed growth letting terms
The 'new economy' was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and '98.
consumer factors fourth growth lifted looked mean months pace quarter six slower spending third weak
The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
add confidence consumer consumers fed last plus rate reasons savings support
The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
consumers economic fuel growth optimistic positive
Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they're not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.
business consumer equipment increases output positive solid
This was a pretty positive number, with solid increases in output of business equipment and consumer goods.
consumer federal growth moderate reserve spending time warning
This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.
actual certainly clearly consumer equivalent number outlook output people remains seen translate understand
A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.
consumer gap hard shutting trade unless
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.
coming consumer employment numbers phenomenal resilience swayed
Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.
consumer factors fatigue goodness report severe special
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
businesses circular confidence consumers effect hiring lay lose nervous people production stop
There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.