Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
guts statement
It's the same meat, but with a different gravy, ... The real guts of the Fed's statement is very much unchanged.
companies guys listen nervous run
It's always been very important to listen to CEOs. When you've got guys that run companies nervous about demand, they put off investing.
actual certainly clearly consumer equivalent number outlook output people remains seen translate understand
A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.
best dollar leaves number sparks trade worst
The trade number at best leaves the dollar where it was and at worst sparks a substantial dollar decline.
consumer gap hard shutting trade unless
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.
anywhere confirmed excited guess markets month number seem turnaround
A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I'm not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be. I would like to see this confirmed in another month of data.
ball changes economy eye faster fed larger outlook state stock tries underlying
People's outlook for the economy changes much faster than the underlying state of the economy. The Fed tries to keep its eye on the larger ball and not on the ping-pong ball of the stock market.
ball bouncing driveway easiest event fairly garage onto roof slope sure unclear
Probably the easiest way to think about the Sept. 11 event is to think of bouncing a ball off the roof of a garage onto the driveway, ... The ball's bouncing around, and it's still unclear what the slope of the driveway is. But we can be fairly sure it's sloping up.
absorb economy effects fed hike national people rate seem seems strong
Most people at the Fed seem to feel that the national economy is strong enough to absorb the effects of Katrina. That to me seems that you will not see the Fed rate hike derailed.
call crisis dollar feedback investors negative purely shedding
What I call a dollar crisis is when you have a big, negative feedback loop, with international investors spooked purely because of the currency, shedding U.S. assets, which would be more dollar negative, and it would just feed on itself,
accepting buy carry changed compared dollar economy either fact fed high markets raising rates resistance rest strong stubborn
When we started the year, the markets were reticent to buy into either a strong U.S. economy or the Fed raising rates to 5 percent. What has changed is the market's very stubborn resistance to accepting the fact that the dollar has a pretty high carry compared to the rest of the world.
change data hikes inflation policy pricing radar rate screen time
We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.
forward global momentum
Without the U.S., there's not much forward momentum in the global economy.
coming consumer employment numbers phenomenal resilience swayed
Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.