Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
deficit economic energy gasoline goes growth hard medium national regional retail short wherever
With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
biggest consumers despite evidence fact fixed lining pay prices short
In the short run, people's consumption is essentially fixed for gasoline. The biggest evidence of this is despite the fact we've got prices at $3, $4 or $5 a gallon, we've got consumers lining up to pay for it.
capacity coming gulf prices production pulling short supplies
You've got (U.S.) supplies coming from a lot of places: more imports, more refinery capacity and more production from the Gulf of Mexico, and that's pulling down prices in the short term.
decades impact minimal truth
Truth be told, by the government's own study, this would have a minimal impact on price, decades in the future.
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This warm weather is lowering demand for natural gas and heating oil. What the market does is all in the hands of the weatherman.
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The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.
awareness headlines market minor price raise recently resolved rises seen series soon
We've recently seen a series of minor conflagrations in Nigeria, which are resolved swiftly. The headlines raise awareness in the market but the price rises soon fade.
average gasoline likely pump records
With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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There have been attempts this year to solve the bottleneck in the refinery part of the energy equation. That is still not resolved.
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There is no strategic government reserve of natural gas or refined products, and right now the biggest concerns in the marketplace are for products.
build gas natural time
The real shocker is that there was a build of natural gas at this time of year.
bigger higher iranian leads mean oil price prices problems uncharted
If this leads to the shut-off of Iranian oil, I think it would probably mean we've got bigger problems than the price of oil. But if we end up with a 1970s-style oil embargo, we could see prices go markedly higher into uncharted territory.
crude oil pressure
mitigated some of the upward pressure on crude oil prices.
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Potentially, Katrina could signal the death knell of the SUV in as much as consumers are going to find themselves once burned, twice shy to buy such vehicles,