Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
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The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.
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With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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Near-term energy price spikes, ubiquitous gasoline lines and fear of shortages have exposed the soft underbelly of the U.S. energy complex,
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The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.
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Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.
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What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.
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We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
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There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.
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Regardless of how large the draws are expected to be, especially in gasoline, seeing the actual numbers will be a shock.
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Markets were caught off-guard by a blow-out trade deficit, ... This could affect growth.
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Massive inventory declines in crude oil are part of a three-month trend, heating oil prices continue their relentless rise, and the supply disruption premium is in full effect. This may only be the beginning; the winter oil bull run has begun.
It is conceivable that we could see $3 this summer.
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Supplies are pretty lush. Once this report is digested we should see a big decline in prices. The geopolitical concern and economic growth are still there in the background supporting prices.