Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
continued domestic employment fuel further gains gross growth higher home interest mitigate product sales slowing solid strong
Strong continued gross domestic product growth and solid employment gains should fuel further home sales and may mitigate some of the slowing engendered by higher interest rates.
correction further headlines likely move prices seems
A correction seems likely if we don't see a further intensifying of the geopolitical crisis. There will have to be further headlines for prices to move higher.
economy implicitly imply indicate industrial levels likely orders remain sector strong
Strong levels of unfilled orders imply a strong U.S. economy and implicitly indicate more manufacturing in the pipelines. Clearly, the industrial sector is likely to remain strong in the near- and medium-term.
barrel expect indication near point rational several spike totally trend
I totally expect to see $50 a barrel, at least in a spike to that level, at some point in the near future. We've been in an upward trend for several years, and I really don't see any indication of a reversal of that trend. $50 a barrel is a completely rational expectation.
crack crude gasoline iranian spread
The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.
across builds changing healthy major pressure
There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.
hit hitting next today whether
Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.
affected august economy initially numbers perhaps revision seeing shows stronger
What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.
deficit economic energy gasoline goes growth hard medium national regional retail short wherever
With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
bottom determine energy inventory numbers question range seeing trading weather whether
We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
biggest continue increase likely potential prices push supplies trend
We're likely to see prices continue to trend upward. The biggest potential to push prices down is going to be an increase in supply, but right now supplies look pretty fixed.
driving fourth imagine july memorial peak
We're not even in the peak driving season. Imagine what it'll be like the Fourth of July weekend, or even Memorial Day.
concern gas last likely natural prices squeeze twice
There is justification for concern about natural gas prices at these levels. Prices now are essentially twice what they were last winter. That's likely to squeeze consumers.
believe capacity cents drivers driving economy extra fuel good handle higher people per stop tough
American drivers have the capacity to handle higher fuel costs. With the economy in good shape, it is tough to believe people will stop driving because of an extra 50 or 75 cents per gallon.