Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
core final pressures price producer rate report today
The most disconcerting part of the PPI report today was the rate of final core producer price pressures in January.
capacity coming gulf prices production pulling short supplies
You've got (U.S.) supplies coming from a lot of places: more imports, more refinery capacity and more production from the Gulf of Mexico, and that's pulling down prices in the short term.
believe despite impact market news
Despite the news of escalation, I think the market does not believe it's going to have a real impact on supplies.
behavior changing consumer despite energy high hold relatively spending
Despite high energy prices, consumer spending will hold up relatively well. Consumer behavior is not changing a lot.
call establish likely
The call to establish more refineries is likely to be sounded again.
drop leading situation supply
This is a situation where you've got a lot of supply on hand, leading to a drop in prices.
average couple higher last likely moving prices saw toward volatile weeks year
A couple of weeks ago we saw prices were moving toward $70 again. This is a very volatile marketplace but I think on the whole we are likely to see the average price this year higher than last year.
bounce commodity elevated energy fell half last likely march oil prices somewhat
Oil prices fell through the first half of last month, but commodity prices are still somewhat elevated and we're likely to see energy bounce back in the March report.
core increase inflation january percent rate since
The month-over-month increase at 0.4 percent was the swiftest rate since January 2005. The implication is that core inflation may be rising.
accurately captures couple hope market months
After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.
best capacity global impact market
They're supplying the market the best they can, but they have very little impact on global refinery capacity and very little impact on geopolitical events.
announced beginning decision exert impact next somewhat statements week
OPEC's statements and quota decision announced at the beginning of next week could exert a somewhat bearish impact on prices.
critical cut despite disruption energy event growth haunts likely next oil quite seems slower specter supply today unlikely
OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.
crude easily hit
I think it is easily conceivable that we could see crude futures hit $70 this week.