Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
average gasoline likely pump records
With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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Near-term energy price spikes, ubiquitous gasoline lines and fear of shortages have exposed the soft underbelly of the U.S. energy complex,
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There is no strategic government reserve of natural gas or refined products, and right now the biggest concerns in the marketplace are for products.
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This warm weather is lowering demand for natural gas and heating oil. What the market does is all in the hands of the weatherman.
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The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.
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The real shocker is that there was a build of natural gas at this time of year.
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The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
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There is justification for concern about natural gas prices at these levels. Prices now are essentially twice what they were last winter. That's likely to squeeze consumers.
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The service sector performed well, with new orders rising, prices declining and employment inching up.
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The stock market is reacting to the strong earnings reports we've seen earlier today. But sooner or later, companies may have to start passing through the increase in energy costs or be hurt by it.
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The sky isn't falling, just new non-defense aircraft orders.
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Is inflation dead? Not yet. If this moderating of inflationary pressures were to appear in the other reports, it could bode well for the economy.
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The worst possible outcome for the stock market is that it takes a month to decide the election,