Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
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Supplies are pretty lush. Once this report is digested we should see a big decline in prices. The geopolitical concern and economic growth are still there in the background supporting prices.
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Such a strong report by a financial institution has to help others in the same sector. Rates have been rising but gradually, which gives some banks opportunity to adjust.
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The retail sales report was the most significant piece of data we had in weeks and that certainly had the stock market going. It points to a solid first quarter, with earnings growth.
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The most disconcerting part of the PPI report today was the rate of final core producer price pressures in January.
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The stock market is reacting to the strong earnings reports we've seen earlier today. But sooner or later, companies may have to start passing through the increase in energy costs or be hurt by it.
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One of the biggest hurricanes ever is headed for the heart of America's refining capacity. Prices will hit new records if we get reports of flooding and other destruction once the storm passes.
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I don't think the energy prices that have only gone up since this report are some transitory aberration,
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Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.
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What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
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We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
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There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.
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The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.
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Regardless of how large the draws are expected to be, especially in gasoline, seeing the actual numbers will be a shock.