Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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There will be some early applause from Wall Street, but it will be subdued because there is a long road ahead. It does not signal the end of terrorist attacks both around the world and in the United States.
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That was a signal that we were headed toward distress.
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One of the most important signs of a bull market is when the bull market manages very, very bad news like we've had today. So in that sense, you've got a very encouraging performance today.
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Does this signal a policy change in Washington?
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I think the yield has worried investors. Some investors believe that it's a signal that a recession lies ahead. I believe that is a faulty interpretation.
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Individuals are buying stock with the idea that it will become even more overvalued. That's a sign of speculation.
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If there are lots of other signals of appending recession, take it seriously. But don't hang your hat on the yield curve.
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I don't think it changes anything for Federal Reserve policy. Various early warning signs of inflation are still telling us they have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and they are likely to do so when they meet next week.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.