Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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Mutual funds are clearly a very big reason why the stock market is declining, ... This is the other side of the mountain.
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The reason for the (technology) decline is the combination of the Cisco earnings and the comments from CEO John Chambers. He basically said what Intel said recently: that customers are getting very cautious and that spending on technology is slowing.
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The reason the (stock) market is struggling is that concerns about the economy and earnings are deepening, ... We don't see anything that says the current profit recession is going to end.
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It's a reasonably accepted conclusion that the Fed will raise rates in both June and August; that's what the market has discounted. I don't know if Friday's employment report will change that, no matter what it says.
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Would I bottom fish in these industry groups? Emphatically no, ... I see no reason to believe these problems will be solved anytime soon.
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Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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Ordinarily you would expect the stock market to rise or do better, but it's not, and I think the reason it's not is it's being held in check by high oil prices.
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The markets are moving to more reasonably reflect expectations for what lies ahead in 2005.
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The main reason that Alcoa is cheap is that all of the stocks in basic materials are cheap,
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.